One of the most interesting things in watching the Australian elections over the weekend was seeing the shock of ABC presenters when the results of its post-vote polling showed climate change was far and away the most important issue on voters’ minds – a massive 27% compared with the next most important: the economy, at 14%.

Why was this so shocking to the media, the political analysts?

It hasn’t stopped raining in Lismore for three months, during which time there have been two devastating floods: today, the town barely exists – it’s all been underwater, twice. There’ve been ongoing floods and storms – from North Queensland all the way down the east coast. Western Australia suffered record heatwaves and horrific bushfires last summer. The Great Barrier Reef is undergoing its sixth – and worst – bleaching event.

The terror of the 2019/20 firestorms that turned the sky orange, burning seven million hectares, are etched into people’s minds, and so is the response from Scott Morrison from his holiday Hawaii as Australia was burning: “I don’t hold a hose mate.” Equally, his slow response to call a major emergency after the Lismore flooding disaster (rightfully) enraged locals.

ScoMo’s response to climate-related disasters didn’t endear him to the Australian people.

As the election campaign rolled out, Scott Morrison didn’t want to talk about climate, because his position was pretty dodgy; Antony Albanese didn’t want to scare the mining communities he needed the votes from (which he didn’t get anyway), and the Canberra press gallery didn’t want to ask either leader about it – it wasn’t in their minds.

Climate specialist journalists were having the devil’s own job in trying to get analysis on climate change published by their editors.  There were pockets of it, but it simply wasn’t a gotcha front page issue. While the Guardian rolled out a number of good pieces, the vast majority of the media largely ignored this issue, entirely missing the story of what voters really cared about, despite polling telling them otherwise.

But in those communities on the ground, climate change was top of mind. As Greens leader Adam Bandt said on Saturday night, the feedback the Greens were getting in Brisbane was that people from all political persuasions were deeply concerned about climate change. They could see it happening in front of their very eyes,  and they wanted action.  And this was one key reason for the “Greenslide” that saw the Greens gain seats in both the House and the Senate.  And the teal independents win liberal seats.

The trauma of having your house (or that of your family or neighbours) underwater or burned to the ground, your wheat crop ravaged by a mouse plague, seeing your beloved forests – and the animals living in them – torched, your Great Barrier Reef bleached, is not easily dismissed. It lives with people for years.

Labor now looks set to gain a very slim majority, so in theory it won’t have to negotiate with the 16-seat crossbench to get its legislation across the line.  PM Albanese has already stated Labor’s 2030 climate target – a 43% reduction below 2005 levels – is not up for negotiation. The target has been arrived at through detailed modelling of all the party’s climate policies (something that would be good to see the National Party do here in Aotearoa – if it HAD a plan).

That crossbench has a strong climate focus: the Greens want to see a target of 74% by 2030 and the teal independents 60%, both 1.5˚C compatible, according to analysis from Climate Analytics – and Labor’s target is around 2˚C compatible.

The Greens look set to hold the balance of power in the Senate, so that will be one to watch. Will they insist on strong climate legislation, such as independent Zali Steggall’s draft Net Zero Bills (60% by 2030)?

While the fossil fuel industry’s firm grip on government has now been loosened and hopefully will be addressed (this article in Renew Economy spells out just how many fossil fuel industry stooges Morrison and his energy minister Angus Taylor planted in key positions), there’s still a way to go, and a lot of damage to undo. Labor will submit its new target to the UNFCCC, and is likely to re-enter the Global Climate Fund that the previous encumbents walked away from.

Labor still wedded to gas and coal 

But as this great piece in Carbon Brief points out, Labor has not backed off its support of both gas and coal:

“Australia is on track to continue producing fossil fuels in large volumes, with 69 new coal projects and 45 new LNG, gas and oil projects in the investment pipeline, as of October 2021.”

The emissions from those projects, combined, would add at least 8.3% to Australia’s emissions by 2030.

But Albo does not oppose big new gas projects like Woodside Energy’s Scarborough Pluto extension in Western Australia, set to add 1.37 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by 2055, and he hasn’t named a single coal-fired power station he’d close down early. He’s even said the country could still be burning coal in 2050, 20 years after the date Australia needs to get out of coal as its part in the global action required to keep warming to 1.5˚C.

Protesters challenge Woodside Energy’s Scarborough Gas project in Western Australia

The fossil fuel industry has been pouring money into the political parties, with Woodside giving the biggest donation – $108,350  – to Labor. The sector donated a total of $1.15m to political parties in the past year, similar to the $1.13m it donated the year before.  It would be good to hear Labor reject that funding.

Sure, Labor does have good, big plans for climate action, and there is certainly scope for its many policies listed in its “Powering Australia” plan to roll out in all the sectors neglected by the federal government: transport, industry, buildings, etc.  Labor had a plan, a plan that it had thoroughly modelled to get to its 2030 target number (something our National Party might want to consider if it wants to be taken seriously on climate change).

But if anyone expects a coal-fired power station to be closed down any time soon – or even a coal mine to be stopped, they will likely be disappointed. We will likely keep seeing coal from the Adani mine continuing to be exported to India. the fight against coal will – and must – go on. [Noting there has been a very long and effective fight against Australia’s coal development, and the Galillee basin in particular].

Perhaps the strong climate signal from the voters, combined with the crossbench in the House that is overwhelmingly in favour of it, will mean Labor will understand it has been given a strong mandate to do more to tackle the fossil fuel production problem – but my bet is that this won’t happen at least until after the next election.  The Climate Wars might be over, but they could come roaring back at any point.

We can only hope that this will bring more of the teal independents and Greens into the House in the next election.

The question that everyone here has been asking is whether the Australian election outcome will have an impact on New Zealand?  It’s probably unlikely we’ll have the same voter reaction based on climate concerns: we haven’t seen quite the devastation that Australians have experienced, even though pockets of the country have (think: Tairawhiti, Westport).

Although I hasten to add we ARE seeing impacts – such as the 40 dead kororā in Northland last weekend, likely because of warming seas.  Our glaciers are shrinking; we ARE seeing more terrible flooding events right around the country.  Recent sea level rise information has shocked the country.   While more of us need to be shouting about climate action as these events are taking place, we’re often told this is “not the time” when we try to.

Other non climate-related takeaways 

While COVID-19 WAS a factor in the Australian elections, I don’t think it was in quite the same way that a lot of the New Zealand media are claiming.  The vote wasn’t a message to an incumbent government from a population fed up with a strong covid response and worried about the rising cost of living. It was a population fed up with a right wing government that didn’t appear to care about its people.

The success of the Australian covid response was largely down to the State premiers, not the federal government. Every time ScoMo did something on covid he did it wrong – and late, he lied about it, tried to blame other people, and messed it up. The loss of liberal seats in both WA and Victoria were, to a large extent, driven by the sledging their premiers got by the Federal government in the face of their strong response. The people of WA didn’t like being called cave people.  Who does?

Aside from pushing back against ScoMo on covid and climate, the other factor was what we’re seeing a lot of here in Aotearoa, unfortunately: misogyny, and the misogyny of the Morrison government had to be seen to be believed. Australia’s women had had enough. They voted for independents – and those who won were almost all women.  This argument is best summed up in ABC’s Annabel Crabb’s fantastic article.

The post The Australian election: what does it mean for climate, coal and gas? appeared first on Coal Action Network Aotearoa.

This poses a challenge to climate change denial that right-wing politicians and pundits are desperate to distract and deflect from, in both Australia and the US.

In their attempts to blame greenies and/or arsonists, they’ve been opposed by the firefighters themselves, who have no difficulty in speaking truth to power and incompetence.

This has caused splits in the Liberal government and in the Murdoch news empire, the prime echo chamber of climate change denial in both countries.

Finally, here’s a takedown of the “but we’re too small to make a difference” excuse that we also hear in NZ, plus the coal industry figures that are largely to blame for the Government’s ineptitude.

PS: A CSIRO scientist established the link between a warming climate and worsening fire seasons back in 1987.

His warning fell on deaf ears, and Australian coal exports soared over the next four decades.

The post Fire and Denial appeared first on Coal Action Network Aotearoa.

Kristin sends this report:

Three days amongst 250 of Australia’s most inspiring coal and gas campaigners has been a surprisingly emotional experience. As I reflect on the journey of the past few days I am left with a deep sense of respect for these people and those around the world so heavily impacted by the fossil fuel industry.

In my daily life and work it has been easy to overlook the widespread harm the industry is causing to right now to ordinary people every day. This conference has brought this home for me and I would like to share that with you.

Opening night: grim stories from the coal face  

A bloke of about 50 stands up, takes the mic, and introduces himself as an ex-coal miner who now spends his time fighting the expansion of the coal port, and therefore coal industry in McKay, Queensland.

He has felt the damage first hand. The numbers he uses are staggering, the millions of tonnes of coal, the amount of seabed that needs to be dredged, the number of coal trains, the amount of coal dust spread across the city.

And he tells the story of hurt, of struggle, and of grim determination that is similar to many other stories that night and those of the hundreds of people here, and the tens of thousands of people across the country so heavily impacted by the mining industry.

The first evening feels incredibly cathartic. People just need to tell their stories, talk about the hurt that is being felt in their communities, the price that is being paid by the land, the water and the people for the promised riches of this mining boom. And they are feeling it very hard.

The announcement next morning of the suicide of a farmer whom many here have been supporting brings it into sobering relief.  The pressure of being the only farmer in his area not to sell out to a giant coal seam gas company proving too great. There are plenty of tears.

Similarities with NZ 

I hope we never feel it this hard in New Zealand but am immediately struck by the similarities.

I think of the stories from around our country and how much they resonate with the stories I am hearing here.

I think of the people around Puhi Puhi, unsure and afraid of what the new gold mining permits issued there mean.

I think of the people of Waihi, who will now have to live with mining under their homes.

I think of the folks in Taranaki, who find their rural landscape suddenly industrialised by the burgeoning oil and gas companies; and the people of the Tararua, valiantly trying to stop Tag Oil doing the same to theirs.

And I think of Greymouth, the loss of jobs, the loss of life, and how much hurt they must be feeling.

Day two: Optimism and momentum 

But by day two there are less signs of pain and more smiling faces and it obvious why such a large and diverse crowd have gathered here. Workshops on the latest climate science, community organising, media skills, health monitoring, direct action, social media, lobbying, and groundwater impacts fill the place with an amazing sense of optimism.

When you look at the diversity in the crowd it is obvious that this is a movement that has momentum and knows it is going to win. Doctors, farmers, students, church leaders, grandmothers, taxi drivers and others talk about the positive change that is happening around the country.

1 million homes on solar power, coal power stations shutting down, communities blockading gas companies, nanas knitting to stop coal seam gas, everyday folks changing their super funds because they invest in fossil fuels.

And they say this is just the beginning.

Lessons for NZ: finance is crucial 

Coming home, I am inspired to put some of the lessons from here into action. The key points discussed here are stopping investment and encouraging divestment from fossil fuel projects. Knowing our government Superfund, our major banks, and other institutions responsible for investing our money are putting it in such a destructive industry demands attention.

Understanding finance seems crucial in exposing and ultimately stopping investment in climate change. There is also a lot of work being put into building community resilience, simple and effective when the industry comes knocking.

I also feel inspired to help make an event like this happen in New Zealand. The sharing, the support and the strategising are invaluable and can only strengthen our movement.  I’m taking expressions of interest.

It has been an experience and a privilege to have spent these past days in the midst of such a determined movement. The words shared at the closing are less about hurt and more about the inevitability of success.

I have a moment of jealousy, wishing for the resources and breadth of experience in our movement in New Zealand, but quickly acknowledge it is borne out of necessity, something I hope we never feel like here to the same extent. These fractured communities see not only contaminated water and land, but understand that the floods and the droughts are also impacts of the fossil fuel industry and climate change.

In New Zealand we have had some great victories against the fossil fuel industry. The fight which stopped Marsden B going ahead has ensured we will never build another coal fired power station again. Petrobras abandoning plans for deep sea oil exploration off the East Cape and Solid Energy dropping plans for lignite conversion in Southland are some of our recent wins.

In New Zealand we have achieved a great deal but still find ourselves on the cusp of a massive expansion of the fossil fuel industry. This expansion is already being passionately opposed across the country – from the fight to stop coal mining at Denniston, the growing Lock The Gate movement against oil and gas, and the national opposition to the threat of Anadarko drilling in our coastal waters this summer.

We have defeated these threats before and must continue to learn, to share, and to work together to ensure we defeat them again and minimise the harm like I have witnessed here.

We still have a choice:

We can let the government continue to roll out the red carpet to these companies and face the same fate as these people who have gathered here this weekend.

Or we can take a cue from the growing number of communities I have met here this weekend and take action to keep them out.

I know which I am inspired to do.

Kristin

The post Inspiring report from Australia coal activist gathering appeared first on Coal Action Network Aotearoa.